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2016-12-28 | permalink
Urbanization is eating up the world’s most fertile farmland, study warns
Urbanization is eating up fertile farmland (Photo: CC0)
Urbanization is eating up the world’s most fertile farmland, threatening sustainability goals and livelihoods of small-scale farmers in the Global South, new research shows. According to a study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), some 300,000 square kilometers of particularly fertile cropland will be lost by the year 2030 due to urban sprawl. This corresponds to an area almost the size of Germany and a possible loss of 3–4% of worldwide crop production in the year 2000. The scientists from the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) say this area could feed more than 300 million people for an entire year with 2,500 calories per day. The researchers combined projections on urban area expansion from Yale University with land-use data from the University of Minnesota and the University of British Columbia on global croplands and crop yields. Their results show that urban expansion will result in a 1.8–2.4% loss of global croplands by 2030, with substantial regional disparities. About 80% of global cropland loss from urban expansion will occur in Asia and Africa. Africa has the highest urbanization rates, whereas Asia has the highest absolute growth of urban dwellers. China alone will account for one-fourth of total global cropland loss, amounting to almost 80,000 km². According to the authors, urban expansion in China is taking place in the country’s most productive farmland and over large areas and could therefore pose a threat to domestic crop production. “Hotspots of cropland loss tend to be river valleys and deltas, such as the Yangtze River Delta near Shanghai or the Pearl River Delta near Hong Kong,” said lead author Bren d’Amour. He predicts that land-use conflict between urbanization and food production will differ from region to region. “A lot depends on the urbanization dynamics of the individual countries. In India, for example, the urbanization process is not as fast as in China and smaller in overall scale.”
African countries will experience the highest percentage loss of cropland. Among the hotspots are Nigeria, Burundi and Rwanda, countries that are already severely affected by hunger and food shortage. Urbanization will also eat away large parts of Egypt’s fertile farmlands. By 2030, the country could lose about one-third of its cropland. The study warns that the world’s most fertile soils will be affected since urban sprawl is predicted to take place on cropland that is 1.77 times more productive than the global average. The authors say that “this dynamic adds pressure to potentially strained future food systems and threatens livelihoods in vulnerable regions”. Beyond the direct loss of cropland, the growth of megaurban regions has other important implications for food systems, especially for smallholder farmers, they argue. Large urban areas have seen a growth in supermarkets replacing locally owned or small-scale food retail stores. This has implications for traditional retailers, small producers, traditional food brokers, and the entire supply chain, the authors warn, as once decentralized systems of food procurement will shift to a more centralized system focused on large distribution centers. They urge governments to take action to protect small-scale producers and traditional retailers in order to secure livelihoods in the agrarian economies of the Global South. “Urban planners can contribute to preventing small farmers from losing their livelihoods. Spatially efficient urbanization could help to retain the existing agricultural system while continuing to provide small farmers with access to the urban food market,” said co-author Felix Creutzig. (ab)
